Critical Role Numbers and a look at the Bottle Rocket Pattern of D&D Advice Channels

I had a lot of fun writing about D&D last time and during that process I had thoughts that didn't fit into the scope of that article. Since posting it I wanted to update Critical Role's relative and comparative popularity with itself (as in, this campaign vs the others), so that and my original idea about DM advice channels are the focus of this article.

Numbers reflect actual interest (as opposed to opinion/hype), so here's how campaign three compares to prior CR iterations (using YT numbers as the largest and most accessible dataset--it does not include Twitch or podcast numbers). Before we jump into it, let's acknowledge that the older campaigns have had more time to accumulate views (although simply having time doesn't axiomatically mean significant views are gained). I've targeted episodes 15+ to avoid number bumps from casual interest (viewers at this point would, presumably, be fairly committed). The numbers are in millions, with the highest in green (C1=Campaign One, etc):

• Episode Fifteen C1 2.7 C2 3.6 C3 2.0
• Episode Sixteen C1 2.5 C2 3.5 C3 1.6
• Episode Seventeen C1 2.5 C2 3.3 C3 1.5
• Episode Eighteen C1 2.5 C2 3.4 C3 1.4
• Episode Nineteen C1 2.4 C2 3.5 C3 1.5
• Episode Twenty C1 2.3 C2 1.8 C3 1.2
• Episode Twenty-One C1 2.6 C2 1.8 C3 1.2
• Episode Twenty-Two C1 2.8 C2 1.5 C3 1.3
• Episode Twenty-Three C1 2.3 C2 1.6 C3 1.1
• Episode Twenty-Four C1 2.8 C2 1.6 C3 1.0

The original campaign holds on to its numbers while campaign two has a sharp drop off (this episode, which features a lot of dithering, Yasha, and the introduction of Kiri) before stabilizing at a lower level. As for the campaign three, there is no Kuiper Cliff, just a steady and inexorable decline, but at a lower threshold than campaign two (possibly those lower numbers are a reflection of time passed, as C3 hasn't had years to collect new views, but maybe not). C2 maintained its initial hype longer, with C3 dropping below 3 million views after episode 3. It's worth mentioning that the breaks included for C3 may be an effort to prevent the kind of drop experienced by C2 and, while the first such break (discussed below) had no positive impact, we'll see if the better received second does.

What are my thoughts on the numbers? I mentioned in my prior post (link above) that I thought campaign three had, overall, the best set of characters and opening of the trio, however, that hasn't evolved in ways that interest me (the Briarwood connection attached to the release of Vox Machina always felt very artificial). For me, there's only the overall plot left, but I have a limited interest in the fey. In looking at both the campaigns and the company itself, it feels like CR has been moving increasingly away from core RPG fans without fully replacing them with newbies. I think that change in emphasis is why the numbers for C1 never crash (a campaign much more tied to traditional D&D), while the interest in C2 (which began 4-years ago) will never catch up to it despite the brand being far better known now.

I wonder how much of this shift towards a different audience impacted Vox Machina, a show that did not break through for Amazon, but could have if the full might of the CR audience had watched it.

CR doubled down on Exandria Unlimited with Aabria Iyengar and as expected it tanked (just 637k for the first episode, 79% below the summer opener after 14-episodes of building up Dorion as a character; its ending just 395k). Whether that indifference influenced the latest iteration (Calamity) is hard to say, but they eliminated the major criticism by changing the DM (a friend of mine also thought the poorly defined run-time and storyline hurt the initial iteration). The lead from Dimension 20 enjoyed a strong opening episode (2.0, which is excellent, albeit below the 2.8 opener from last summer); the second episode dropped, but not horribly (1.2), as clearly switching to Brennan Mulligan was the right choice (ep3 is at 931k and the recently released finale 650k).

That aside, I'm disappointed to see more Dimension 20 personalities involved, as it's the second most popular D&D channel and doesn't really need the boost--I'd prefer to see those who need a boost get it (presumably Mercer prefers not just people he knows, but those with an audience pull, otherwise Matt Colville and others could have been on-tap).

The Stephen Colbert one-shot hit well below its original iteration (844k vs 2.7), in large part because Colbert is a shadow of his former self, now hosting a limp, generic late night show, with his days at The Colbert Show largely forgotten. I also think the novelty of a celebrities playing D&D doesn't cut it anymore (with a few exceptions), as more and more influencers attempt to establish their own game online (even Lawtubers covering the Heard/Depp trial among them, cf).

I talked about Acquisitions Incorporated last time--how big it used to be versus how small it is now. Additional evidence for the latter arrived afterwards as D&D Beyond is giving it away for free (cf).

One thing I've noticed is that D&D advice channels who hit it big initially see their views fall off, often dramatically, so why is that? Before I go on, let's make it clear that views do not equal quality--I'm just interested in the numbers and what that might mean. Here's a sample (organized by highest views):

• XP to Level 3 - The channel has extremely varied content, but remains fairly consistent with views (tops at 2.8 and that's within the past year); I do feel like Jacob has been getting lazy with his content, as it increasingly mirrors his less popular second channel, & the reasons for that I think are outlined below
• WASD20 - Top video at 2.8 million; top within a year is 278k (-90%)
• Matt Colville - Top at 1.8 million; top from this past year is 236k (-86%)
• Dungeon Dudes - Top at 1.1 million; from the past year is 613k (-45%); newer videos don't hit at the same rate
• Web DM (WASD20-era) - Top video 932k; top within a year is 112k (-88%); new videos don't hit like they used too
• Davvy Chappy - Top video at 863k; top from the past year is 238k (-72%)
• Ginny Di - Has her YT sorting turned off, making proper assessment impractical, but she began as a cosplay channel; top video 800k; top within a year 530k (her views are historically erratic)
• How to be a Great GM (WASD20-era) - Top video at 461k; top within a year is 144k (-68%)
• The DM Lair - Top video at 490k; older videos are broadly stronger, but the highs are peppered by more recent material
• Bob the World Builder - Top 467k; relatively new channel (2 years) & the best is within this year
• Monarch's Factory (transitioned to D&D four years ago) - Top 209k; top within a year is 70k (-66%)
• Sly Flourish - Top 338k; within a year is 54k (-84%)
• Seth Skorkowsky - Top 296k; top within a year 175k (-40%; Seth's content is only lightly sprinkled with D&D, but because his focus is RPG advice I'm including him)
• Dungeon Craft - Top 267k; top within a year 118k (-55%)
• Dungeon Masterpiece - Only 9 months old and fairly small (top 124k)
• The Dungeon Coach - Small channel (top 76k) and relatively new (2 years)
• Koibu (Neal Pass Erikson) - Small channel (46k) whose top views are quite old

The list is not intended to include everyone, but I think it hits most major creators and I've seen content from all of them. Let's keep in mind the boom in players began 4-5 years ago, so those whose channels hit it big before that were tapping into a different audience (one that was largely unchanged from the 90s onwards).

A few things to note: excluding variety channels like XP to Level 3, the only advice channel that isn't new that's avoided a significant drop thus far is The DM Lair (which is funny to me because I'd rate him quite low for his persona and advice). That aside, I suspect the major problem for these channels is running out of advice to give--eventually the topics grow narrower and therefore the interest in them shrinks. How many videos can you really make about how to start your campaign and so forth? There's also something to be said that the audience for D&D has changed and the large influx of new players are less open to the 'old school' advice many of these channels provide (older DMs tend not to have holistic approaches--there are a lot of built-in assumptions about what does or does not warrant advice and a hyper focus on mechanics and ultra specific troubleshooting, while glossing over fundamentals). It's this difficulty in continuing to pump out useful advice to the broad base of players that I believe is behind XP to Level 3's current content (albeit, because it's a variety channel his views haven't particularly suffered).

As for what's next for me to discuss in this space, I have a lot of ideas. Of the moment it's interesting to me that, despite heavy, continuing advertisement, a successful Indiegogo campaign, and presumably good sales, no one is publicly playing Crown of the Oathbreaker. As someone who bought the material, I wish someone was, as I'd love to see how DMs were handling the massive campaign and its meaty world. Perhaps I'll provide some of my own thoughts on it (and other third party campaign books), although I'm not running it as I am (as usual) doing my own homebrew. Regardless, thoughts and comments are welcome!

This article was written by Peter Levi