The Lessons of D&D 5e as the next Iteration Approaches

Since I haven't written about D&D much, who am I? I've been playing the game since the early 80s (AD&D and Basic D&D), mostly as a DM, but sometimes as a player. I've played every edition and I've enjoyed 5e the most. I do play other TRPG's (Call of Cthulhu particularly), but D&D is my favourite.

As I've discussed before (cf), it's not easy to figure out what exactly has made Dungeons & Dragons so popular of late (graph source). We know it's not the edition (which came out in 2014), although its accessibility helps; it's not Critical Role (2015), although its existence helps; it's not references in Stranger Things (2016), although that helps; and it's not just D&D Beyond (2017), although that platform is almost ubiquitously used now. The only conclusion I can reach is that it's an accumulation of many things, with its beginnings coming from things like Harry Potter (1997), which introduced fantasy elements to many female readers; Game of Thrones (2011), which brought fantasy into the mainstream; it's Gen-Zers (1997-2012) and others growing up with parents who played the game; it's the popularity of teen fiction, which often includes fantasy elements; it's creatives including it in their material (Dan Harmon) or conversations (Vin Diesel). This avalanche of elements hit sometime within the last four years (eg, Cheo Hadari Coker's dismissive comments about playing it leading into Luke Cage in 2016), and I see its impact in my real life all the time (my two current D&D groups are composed largely of new players (70%), and I run into people who are interested all the time). The key point I want to make is WotC (Wizards of the Coast, who run the game) aren't responsible for the phenomena. They are chasing and trying to understand that popularity (cf), desperate to understand why a product whose bedrock is classic fantasy (written by virtually no one today) is suddenly in vogue.

As a product 5e is very 'safe'--taking no risks for years and leaning hard on memberberries to bring back the Pathfinder players who abandoned 4e (see below). That approach worked so well Pathfinder is virtually dead, it's second edition poorly received and the publisher considering making 5e products (cf). This is the only success WotC is directly responsible for, but from the last few years of products it seems as though they are looking to things like the MCU to continue attracting normies (thus Radiant Citadel, which feels like a Phase Four tie-in; Critical Role has gone down this route as well and that may be an element for why Call of the Netherdeep didn't sell as well as expected, see below). I'd argue most products that were written after the popularity spike have been poorer than what came before (see below). What will 2024 and its new edition (One D&D) bring? Let's first establish what's worked thus far.

For the list below I've included selected recent sales data where available--the purpose is to compare books released as the hobby's popularity is peaking. Everything is listed chronologically.

Full Campaign Books (12)

• Tyranny of Dragons (Hoard+Rise; Kobold Press) - Inspired perhaps by The Red Hand of Doom (2006)
• Princes of the Apocalypse (Sasquatch Games) - Based on the iconic Temple of Elemental Evil (1985)
• Out of the Abyss (Green Ronin) - A largely original story via Chris Perkins--it has no relation to the 2e adventure In the Abyss (1994)
• Curse of Strahd - Based on the iconic Ravenloft (1983)
• Storm King's Thunder - Based on the iconic Against the Giants (1981); the latter appeared as-is in the subsequent Yawning Portal and is going to be pilfered again for the upcoming Bigby Presents: Glory of the Giants
• Tomb of Annihilation - Inspired by Tomb of Horrors (1978), Return to the Tomb of Horrors (1998), and presumably The Fanged Crown novel by Jenna Helland (2009)
• Waterdeep: Dungeon of the Mad Mage - Inspired by The Ruins of Undermountain (1991)
• Baldur's Gate: Descent into Avernus (12,731 copies its first week) - Leveraging the Baldur's Gate fandom; largely an original story, with borrowing from 2e's A Paladin in Hell (1998) and possibly Fires of Dis (1995)
• Icewind Dale: Rime of the Frostmaiden (15,785) - Leveraging the Drizz't fandom
• The Wild Beyond the Witchlight (N/A) - A largely original story from Chris Perkins
• Call of the Netherdeep (9,647) - Leveraging the Critical Role fandom
• Dragonlance: Shadow of the Dragon Queen (Dec.6) - Leveraging the fading Dragonlance fandom and, unlike Eberron below, leaning more on adventure than a setting (likely influenced by the muted reaction to the aforementioned)

Thoughts: the quality is all over the place and there isn't a linear progression (as in, the books get better over time demonstrating lessons learned; instead it's a hodgepodge). Third-party productions have caught up to the quality of official releases and things like Crown of the Oathbreaker (917 pages with just 1600 backers) are more ambitious than what's here, while more traditional Mad Mage-like campaigns are a dime a dozen via third-party (Dwarrowdeep etc) and thus a poor area for WotC to try and compete.

Compilation Books (4)

• Tales from the Yawning Portal - A lazy 5e update for seven classic adventures (two of which are the sources for full campaigns above)
• Ghosts of Saltmarsh - The same idea as Yawning above, but as a campaign based on the prior AD&D campaign The Sinister Secret of Saltmarsh (1981)
• Candlekeep Mysteries (19,542) - 17 forgettable mini-adventures (except for Amy Vorpahl's "Kandlekeep Dekonstruktion")
• Journeys Through the Radiant Citadel (7,123) - 13 forgettable mini-adventures (with the lowest opening sales of any recent book here)

Thoughts: The short adventure compilations are unimpressive--the third-party Questonomicon (13 adventures and 256 pages; 7k backers) is better despite the inexplicable nods to Westerns. While Ghosts is fairly well received, I think that's a product of leaning on yet another memberberry and the talents of D&D's classic writers.

Notable Short Adventures (2)

• Lost Mine of Phandelver - From the original starter set and by far the most played adventure; an original story from Richard Baker and Chris Perkins (the former wrote Forge of Fury (2004), which was included in Yawning Portal, among other adventures)
• Waterdeep: Dragon Heist - A largely original story from Chris Perkins

Thoughts: Third-party productions are always going to be better because of the cost and variety available--outside of starter sets it's pointless for WotC to produce these, despite how much I like both.

Notable Non-Adventure/Non-Core Books (7)

• Sword Coast Adventurer's Guide (Green Ronin) - This short, overpriced, largely useless guide to the Forgotten Realms is something WotC has tried to forget
• Wayfinder's Guide to Eberron - A bizarre, expensive pdf playtest for the full campaign book that came out over a year later
• Guildmaster's Guide to Ravnica - Meant to tie-in with the MAGIC: The Gathering fandom; it's widely ignored
• Aquisitions Incorporated - Meant to tap into the AI fandom (cf), which had shrunk so badly that it's now given away for free on D&D Beyond
• Eberron - The belated 5e edition which, just as with its 4e iteration, failed to re-spark what made it so successful in 2004 (the static setting hurts its replayability--nothing changes, so one or two dips in the pond is as far as most people go)
• Strixhaven: A Curriculum of Chaos (18,298) - Again tying in with MAGIC; initially sold better than its predecessor, but is also largely ignored
• Spelljammer (N/A) - The first return to the series since 2e, but as a niche experience, its impact is limited

Thoughts: other than the Eberron and Spelljammer source books, there's nothing remarkable here (and in both of those cases the response was muted--a familiar phenomena as WotC experienced the same with 4e's Eberron and Dark Sun). I don't think the company has figured out the correct way to do new settings (Dragonlance seems like a response to that indifference by making it a campaign first). The reception to third party campaigns isn't much better (Grim Hollow is interesting, 15k backers, but it's not more ambitious or dynamic than Eberron etc). Tie-ins with MAGIC or Rick & Morty have failed and I think that's a matter of approach as opposed to the integration being impossible. The efforts have been directed at non-gamers so the playerbase ignores it. WotC should target the gamer community who in turn will bring fans of those products into the fold.

Throughout 5e WotC has riffed on almost all the most successful/recognized products from prior editions. Other than things like Night Below (1995), Against the Cult of the Reptile God (1982), and settings like Dark Sun (1991), there's nothing left to tap into--ergo, it's the perfect time for a new edition. It needs to be emphasized that none of the internally developed ideas from WotC have struck gold other than Phandelver, although we need to credit the adaptations that have worked. Broadly, the creative team is lacking and needs an injection of talent to create new exciting settings and campaigns. I think Beyond the Witchlight and Netherdeep are illustrations that products can't veer too far away from the core combat-focus, while Mad Mage illustrates the opposite point where there needs to be a strong spine of a story with at least the illusion of RP opportunities--the happy middle works best.

It's hard to gauge which adventures are most popular. Sales and polls are all we can rely on, but sales data isn't easy to find and even polls aren't as common as you'd think. D&D Beyond data would settle the question, but absent that we'll aim for what we can find. Here is a poll (just 90 votes):

• 1. Strahd
• 2. Tomb
• 3. Frostmaiden
• 4. Saltmarsh
• 5. Dragon Heist
• 6. Storm King
• 7. Avernus
• 8. Candlekeep
• 9. Yawning Portal
• 10. Mad Mage
• 11. Abyss
• 12. Princes

[Only these adventures seem to have been included as options.]

This has over 400 votes:

• 1. Strahd
• 2. Tomb
• 3. Phandelver
• 4. Dragon Heist
• 5. Saltmarsh
• 6. Abyss
• 7. Avernus
• 8. Yawning Portal
• 9. Storm King
• 10. Mad Mage
• 11. Rise of Tiamat
• 12. Princes

Let's compare these to a few publication lists (here, here, here, here, and here; the latter lists his own adventures as the best, but nevertheless his other selections can be noted):

• 1. Strahd/Strahd/Strahd/Tomb/Phandelver
• 2. Tomb/Yawning Portal/Abyss/Strahd/Strahd
• 3. Phandelver/Tomb/Avernus/Saltmarsh/Dragon Heist
• 4. Saltmarsh/Phandelver/Storm King/Yawning Portal/Storm King
• 5. Dragon Heist/Abyss/Yawning Portal/Storm King/Tyranny
• 6. Avernus/Avernus/Saltmarsh/Phandelver/NA
• 7. Frostmaiden/Saltmarsh/Tomb/Thessalhydra/NA
• 8. Mad Mage/Witchlight/Phandelver/Avernus/NA
• 9. Storm King/Frostmaiden/Dragon Heist/Mad Mage/NA
• 10. Abyss/Icespire Peak/Mad Mage/Icespire Peak/NA

What can we do with all this? Average it out, remove the outliers and then rank them:

• 1. Curse of Strahd (2016) is the only adventure to appear on all lists and scores highest (first or second on all lists)
• 2. Tomb of Annihilation (2017) is next, absent from just the idiosyncratic final list and it scores within the top-three in all but one (the smaller poll)
• 3. Lost Mine of Phandelver (2014) likely should have been on all lists and where it appears the average is within the top-five
• 4-5. Saltmarsh/Dragon Heist (2019/2018) - identical scores and number of appearances (6 of 7 lists) and the adventures could not be more different--I'm honestly surprised at how well regarded Saltmarsh is, even though I'm fond of the AD&D-inspiration for that campaign
• 6-7. Storm King/Avernus (2016/2019) - identical scores and appearances (6 of 7) with a wide range of ranking; both are epic campaigns
• 8. Yawning Portal (2017) - I'm shocked it appears at all, but as it's composed of classic adventures perhaps I shouldn't be; it's absent from two individual lists and ranked low in both polls (although it does appear)
• 9. Mad Mage (2018) - The only classic dungeon delve in 5e, it appears in 5 of 7 lists, but always very low, indicating lukewarm enthusiasm
• 10. Out of the Abyss (2015) - nudges out Frostmaiden by appearing in 4 of 7 (vs 3 of 7) and having an overall better ranking; another epic adventure

Are there commonalities with our top-three adventures? I think we can identify a few elements, even if Phandelver is quite different from Strahd and Annihilation:

• A strong story - They go well beyond 'here there be monsters'
• Mystery - Each has its share of mysteries to be unraveled as a key element of the story
• Villain - While highly varied, each has a strong villain (Phandelver, while being weaker, does this with Glasstaff)
• Setting - Barovia and Chult are highly distinctive (escaping the drudgery of the core Forgotten Realms, which ironically Phandelver is suffused with, but escapes its inanities with a scope appropriate to the PCs)
• Exploration - All reward exploration
• Choice - There's at least an illusion of player choice dictating events

That's not to say other adventure books don't include these elements, simply that they don't do them as effectively. It's worth noting that all these top adventures were written in-house, albeit the key elements from both Tomb and Strahd are from classic AD&D. What's also apparent is these are all older adventures (2014, 16, and 17)--there's nothing from the last few years on the top list (even if 2020's Frostmaiden appeared it would appear at the bottom). This suggests WotC's decisions of late have not translated as intended, even if the sales for some of them have been fine.

The best received non-traditional adventure is Dragon Heist, but as a short adventure that dovetails into the drudgery of Mad Mage, it doesn't have the payoff to be a favourite campaign. What's also clear is adventures with a simpler or sloppier story do not make the list (Mad Mage is aiming at an old school audience which remains at the periphery of popularity).

Attempts at more ambiguous villains as the centerpiece of the adventure haven't performed as well (Netherdeep and Witchlight). I don't think the ambiguity is the problem, since Avernus and Strahd can have a similar angle (when using the redeemable versions), but the former both seem to lean too far away from the spine of what makes D&D fun (players, ultimately, want to use their abilities as the core of their activity, as in, roll some dice--pure RP does not permit that).

Going forward I think the company will remain risk-averse, but with a sprinkling of what's made modern entertainment so tedious (Rings of Power, Cowboy Beebop, She-Hulk etc--putting message over story). That conservative approach and reliance on player feedback will save it from when the culture swings the other way. D&D is also recession proof--the hobby that is--so the economic downturn shouldn't hurt its popularity at all.

This article was written by Peter Levi